Market Timing

Knowing where price is likely to turn is key to being able to profit from the markets and knowing when to get in and out is another. In my weekly outlook articles I always show where price has the potential to turn and on the private members forum we look at where to get and out. I'm going to share some recent trades with examples of how we do it.

About 4 weeks ago in the weekly outlook article, I highlighted a number of levels to watch for potential trades. You can find that article here. The pairs I want to talk about are EJ, EU and GU. Over the past few weeks I've been giving updates on each of those pairs and how we entered and were still waiting for falls in price. Below I'll detail what happened.

EURJPY

Price hit supply on the daily chart and arrived at the level with nothing but green candles indicating profit potential. When this happens we look for confirmation that the level will hold on the H1 chart. In particular we're looking for a demand level to be engulfed before we trade short from demand. Exits are at opposing levels after a 5m engulf.

Daily

2015-06-21 EJ Short D1

H1

Price engulfs opposing level and path is clear below it

2015-06-14 EJ Short H1

2015-06-18 EJ Short M5

Result

Price dropped over 200 pips before reversing from a 30m demand level after which I exit. Then this happened:

2015-06-29 EJ Long D1

I can't say I wasn't annoyed that price fell so much further with the huge gap down but rather that worry about that for too long, I focused more on where price had dropped to; daily demand. With the massive gap into demand, there wasn't anything to stop price from rallying up for a good few hundred pips so I looked for longs and posted this in the members area:
2015-06-29 EJ Long M30

By this time you already know what happened next. Price rallied up and filled that gap. If this entry was missed there was another one further up on the curve below:

2015-06-29 EJ Long H1 v01

Exit with a 5m engulf at the opposing level as usual. After my exit, price gave back most of the gains. You have to know when to get in and out.

2015-06-29 EJ Long M5 v01

GBPUSD

We had a similar situation on GU. I shared the daily supply level weeks ago on the weekly outlook and I've been updating with advise to keep watching since then. Here's the level below:

2015-06-14 GU Short D1

Price arrived back at the level with green candles so I began to look for short confirmation on the H1.

2015-06-21 GU Short D1

Here is the level I wanted to see engulfed before taking a short:

2015-06-21 GU Short M30

Once we had the engulfed, I looked to the nearest supply level to short from and used a 5m engulf to enter.

2015-06-23 GU Short H1

2015-06-23 GU Short M5

Now I was in this trade for over a week before it did what I wanted it to do. During this time I just waited. Sometimes price will perform exactly as planned quickly like the GA long from a month ago, and other times it will bounce up and down in a range before moving. They key is to stick to the plan and let is play out. I had a few questions about whether or not to stay in the trade given the issues in Greece and the uncertainty which has been all over the news. The news didn't get me into the trade and the news won't cause me to get out. I'm only interested in what the chart tells me to do. Price did bring EU into play which I'll look into shortly and whether that was new driven or not I don't care. All I know is price came into demand, confirmed a long trade, and I make a lot of pips.

Now back to GU. Price hit H1 demand and reversed on the 5m so I exit. It's fallen further since but I made some money and I'm out according to my rules.

2015-07-01 GU Short H1 2015-07-01 GU Short M5

EURUSD

The EU demand was spotted about a month ago and I'd been waiting for a possible entry since then (check it out here). When the market opened last week, price had gapped straight into the level. Soon after that we had confirmation for a long similar to the one for EJ. Once again there was further confirmation higher up on the curve too and after an entry, price went on to fill the gap after which I exit.

2015-06-28 EU Short D1

2015-06-29 EU Long H1 v01

2015-06-29 EU Long M5 v02

These trades are well worth waiting for. You don't get an entry all the time and sometimes price won't go as far as you would like but if you're consistent with the approach it all works out.

I hope you found this useful.

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1 Comment

  1. jimmy on July 5, 2015 at 20:13

    Hi Joe,
    I have to say you run a great site and i’ve been lurking here probably since you started out. Great clean PA stuff, congrats and thanks. I continue to add things i’ve learned here to my own trading. So please keep it coming 😉
    Just one (small, minor, meaningless, tiny…….) request if i may be so bold..?
    Could you put a date on top of your posts, please :-))

    thanks
    Jimmy

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